Australia's net overseas migration (NOM) surged after the pandemic as borders reopened and bipartisan policy deliberately allowed expanded intake to address acute workforce shortages. That surge has now reversed. NOM has fallen by more than 250,000 since its September 2023 peak, down to 301,000, and the Federal Government's 2026-27 Budget now forecasts it will reach 225,000 by 2027-28, roughly in line with pre-pandemic levels.